COVID-19 vaccines have begun in the United Kingdom and Canada, with US markets following. Strong adoption of vaccinations will increase consumer confidence and speed up social mobility, ultimately driving economic growth.

IRI’s latest report, “Anticipated Vaccine Adoption and Impact on CPG Industry,” explores the opportunities that retailers and manufacturers have to promote vaccinations, both as a physical destination where consumers can get a vaccination, and as part of overall wellness campaigns. 


• IRI forecasts two economic and mobility recovery scenarios: one for mid-2020 and the other for late 2020. 

• Consumer acceptance of vaccines and the potential for additional federal stimulus will impact social mobility and economic recovery.

• Mixed consumer sentiment (as of mid-November) toward vaccines provides opportunities for retailers and manufacturers to incentivize consumer adoption of vaccines and drive traffic to stores and ultimately growing loyalty with new and existing shoppers. 

• IRI anticipates that a significant proportion of consumers will get vaccinated by mid-year to the end of 2021. IRI reported projected industry sales growth for next year in our report, “Harness Growth in 2021” (value sales growth of -2.5% to -5% for food and beverages and -1% to -2% for total non-edible items compared to a year ago).

• Consumer acceptance of vaccines as well as the potential for additional federal stimulus will impact social mobility and economic recovery, respectively, and could affect IRI’s forecasts.

• Two-dose vaccines mean retailers have two additional opportunities to connect with shoppers. Brands can incentivize shoppers with rewards, such as coupons or other offers when they get a vaccine.  

• Given the demographic skews of early adopters, retailers and manufacturers have an opportunity to offer products, promotions and messages tailored to them and evolve the offers as adoption increases (e.g., older males in urban areas initially).