New analysis from global strategy consultancy L.E.K. Consulting indicates that the US may have reached "peak calorie," with total caloric consumption expected to remain flat over the next decade. For manufacturers and investors across the food and beverage industry, volume tailwinds that once lifted the industry are fading, and growth will increasingly depend on differentiated value creation.

L.E.K.'s analysis found that while aggregate caloric intake grew about 0.7% annually over the past 25 years, multiple forces now point to a plateau. In scenario modeling for 2025 to 2035, caloric growth ranges from approximately -0.3% to +0.3% per year. That's due to the rising use of appetite-suppressing GLP-1 medications – which has more than doubled from 2024 to 2025 – as well as demographic shifts in the US, including population deceleration and declining birth rates.

"An era defined by dependable volume growth is ending, elevating the need for a greater focus on innovation, pricing discipline and operational excellence in food and beverage," said Manny Picciola, managing director and coauthor of What 'Peak Calorie' Means for US Food and Beverage Growth. "In a flat-volume environment, syncing supply chain and commercial teams can simplify operations where it counts, improve service and speed, and free up resources to invest in the priorities that drive growth."

L.E.K. identified several imperatives for food and beverage manufacturers, investors and CPG leaders:

- Activate revenue growth management (RGM) levers. Refining price-pack architecture, improving trade efficiency and managing product mix will be central to maintaining margins as consumption slows. Rethinking route-to-market to meet consumers where they are and ensuring omnichannel distribution will also be critical. Winning with Amazon, Walmart.com, and Instacart will be essential.

- Find and scale pockets of true demand. Identify pockets of volume growth early – by category and channel – and act decisively to capture them. Innovation can target GLP-1 consumer needs and modernizing underdeveloped categories can unlock growth. With smaller brands regaining share, sharpen market sensing across measured and unmeasured channels.

- Simplify to grow through supply chain optimization. Stamping out complexity across the supply chain, in conjunction with commercial priorities, can improve service and speed while advancing profitability goals. Best-in-class teams connect commercial and supply chain through a repeatable process to execute priorities and drive the bottom line.

Operational excellence will also play a role in determining future market winners in a flat-volume environment where cost position is a strategic advantage, according to L.E.K.'s analysis. Companies that build best-in-class procurement, manufacturing and supply chain capabilities can protect margins while improving service and speed – and reinvest those gains in targeted innovation and selective M&A.