Whether you are a retail store, manufacturer, ingredient supplier, or a foodservice operator looking to capitalize on the next food or beverage trend, having relevant data allows you to make better decisions that affect your bottom line. 

So you gather all the data. 

Internal data is based on what you are seeing and forecasting in your current business; and external data pulled from data houses give you a variety of data points for you to comb through. 

But with all that data, it can be overwhelming trying to sift through the information so you can make your next move. Take the wrong step, and it could cost you valuable time and hundreds of thousands or even millions in product development and marketing, only to miss the mark or be behind the curve on a trend that is on its way out. 

We get it, which is why we are helping you look at your data in a new way so you can maximize any trend opportunity and increase your bottom line. 

In this three-part series, we’ll explore you can navigate trends. This second installment is about researching a trend’s trajectory versus following the competition.

The Dangers of Imitation

It doesn’t matter what industry you’re in; if you’re not tracking your competitors, you won’t be aware of how trends are unfolding on the playground. 

But when does glancing over the fence to see what your competitors are up to become dangerous? When you look at that information from your competitors and blindly use it to make decisions. This would thinking or saying something like, “Well, X is doing it! We should, too!” 

Blind imitation is dangerous. After all, you don’t know the reasoning behind their product development or what data they are working from to build their strategy. Watching what your competitors are doing is like looking into a rearview window at decisions they made months ago. If you're focused on what they are doing instead of getting foresight data that will help you make better decisions, then you might be heading straight for a cliff. After all … your competitors may be idiots.

Instead, you can evaluate what they are doing against trend data to determine what YOU should do next. You could become the leader while others are left to chase after you since you will be armed with an understanding of the origin, longevity, and trajectory of the trend. Your goal should not necessarily be to engage a trend first, but to navigate it better than anyone else when you do engage it.

Significance of Trend Understanding

If you want an advantage in the industry, you need to understand the trajectory of a trend. 

Wait? Can you do that? Can you really look and see the trajectory of a trend? Yes! 

Here is what you can look for when evaluating a trend.

• How did the trend originate?
• What factors contribute to the trend’s birth? (government factors, health drivers, technology innovation, other industry’s advancements, etc.)
• Where is the trend heading in the next six months, 12 months, and 24 months?

Answering and understanding these types of questions help your next product launch or marketing campaign be perfectly timed. You can also use this information to determine whether to save your investment for another trend that better fits your corporate goals and needs of your customers. 

Maximized Revenue Through Precise Targeting

By analyzing trend trajectories, you can make informed decisions about product types, marketing strategy, launch timings, and target demographics. For instance, if a trend resonates more with Gen Z, launching a product for Boomers would be a misstep. These insights can drastically reduce errors, boosting revenue and enhancing brand image.

In our first installment, I referenced a case study involving a client interested in the plant protein market. 

To update that story, our client analyzed plant protein trend data in depth. But then, rather than jump on the bandwagon with many competitors, they instead chose to opt-out. That decision saved them millions in R&D, co-packing, ingredient sourcing, packaging, and distribution channel costs. Ultimately, they decided against entering a trend that was not truly aligned with their brand and audience. They saw the trend’s lifecycle end—right at its beginning.

Conclusion

When navigating market trends, think of it as navigating an ocean. Your competitors might be large ships or small boats, but you can't base your decisions solely on their actions. By studying the waves (trends) and understanding their patterns, you have the insight to help you navigate the “tides” safely and strategically.

Focus on understanding the broader market movements and become a navigator that charts your own course based on comprehensive understanding and foresight, not mere reactionary tactics.

It's natural to watch competitors, and it can offer insights, but don’t let their moves dictate your strategy. Dive deeper, understand the intricacies of the trends, and steer your brand toward success. The real compass for navigation isn't what the competition is doing but where the trend is heading and understanding why.

Read this first installment of this series.

About the Author

Suzy Badaracco is president of Culinary Tides, Inc. Culinary Tides, Inc. was created in 2005 and has grown to include a team dedicated to pattern recognition.  Using a unique compilation of military intelligence and chaos analytics, they have been able to successfully predict and profile trends affecting the food industry including food, beverage, consumer, health, government, technology, packaging, adversary & ally, and competitor trends. Culinary Tides, Inc. is a private forecasting think tank which engages with all facets of the food industry including food service, retail, ingredient manufacturers, and suppliers.