At Innova Market Insights, we’ve monitored trends for many years, and “plant-based” ranks as one of the most fascinating.

It first caught our attention several years ago, when we spotted the term “plant-based” nibbling at the edges of the historically staid vegetarian and vegan product subcategories. Today, it’s hard to keep up with the dramatic evolution of protein ingredients that fall under the umbrella of plant-based. This includes the growing numbers of ingredients that are not even based on plants. Here’s a brief look at current trends that help define movement in plant-based ingredients, followed by predictions for the future of alternative proteins.

Innova named “Taking the Spotlight” as the top 2024 trend, calling attention to hero ingredients and the consumer response they generate. Not surprisingly, protein ranked high on the list. When we asked consumers globally about key ingredients, one-third said that they always look at ingredients of interest on the product package and appreciate when key ingredients are called out on packaging. Some of these ingredients attract consumers because they are well-established and well-loved (including protein) while others might be new ingredients that consumers learn about through social media influencers. Among the various strategies for attracting consumers to ingredients in the spotlight are storytelling, label call-outs, and graphics.

We “Sea” You: Oceans of Possibilities

Innova identified ‘”Oceans of Possibilities” as another top 2024 because the ocean and its marine-based products are inspiring the farm of the future.

The ocean is a natural source nutrient-rich fish and plant foods but its health is being threatened by overfishing, pollution, and other environmental issues. The Oceans of Possibilities trend calls attention to both the traditional ocean ecosystem and the new products and opportunities for using technology to recreate its bountiful food sources and nutrients.

We are closely watching microalgae innovation as a source of plant-based protein. Two interesting examples include Gimme Health Foods Inc., San Rafael, Calif.; and Sea & Flour Baking Company, Philadelphia. Gimme Health Foods has developed a gimme Seaweed line of organic, vegan snacks. Meanwhile, newly formed Sea & Flour was preparing this March to introduce packaged breads, buns, rolls and pizza dough incorporating seaweed as an ingredient.

Globally, food and drink launches containing microalgae experienced average annual growth of more than 40% during a recent three-year period. Trends in plant-based proteins from the sea—as well as new technologies to produce seafood without the sea—also overlap with our second 2024 trend, “Nurturing Nature.” Indeed, both seafood companies and technology innovators can be ocean guardians.

Protein Diversity

Plant protein has evolved from the soy-based proteins of the past into a range of different types. We broadly categorize plant-based protein into four groupings, two that are traditional and two that exemplify technology advances.

Whole food plant protein sources—such as beans—are minimally altered from their natural state and can be stand-alone ingredients. Then there are plant protein ingredients that are extracted and processed from sources such as soy, peas, and wheat offer protein in a more purified and concentrated form.

Technology-driven precision fermentation generates “plant-based” protein either as a metabolic product from genetically programmed microbes or from harvesting the microbes themselves. Although these proteins are called plant-based, we expect different terminology such as “animal-free” in the future. That’s because fermentation products such as casein and whey are not really plant-based.

The fourth technology is cell-cultured, where whole animal proteins are replicated using microbes. Innovation in both precision-fermented and cell-cultured technology is growing at a rapid pace.

Protein Popularity

Globally, products with plant or non-animal protein ingredients have the highest penetration in North America. Not surprisingly, these newer protein ingredients are most widely used in categories that center around protein—namely ready meals; meat, fish and eggs; and meat substitutes.

Label claims regarding the presence of protein appear on more than one-quarter of products with plant or non-animal protein ingredients and are much more prevalent on products with plant or non-animal protein ingredients than on general launches.

Looking at launches of products positioned as meat substitutes, a growing majority contain plant or non-animal protein ingredients. Compound annual growth rate of meat substitutes with plant or non-animal protein ingredients is a robust +22% during a three-year period (CAGR, global, 2020-2022) and applies to nearly all subcategories for plant-based and non-animal meat substitutes.

The top sub-category is soy products, followed by alternatives to poultry, fish, and seafood. The marketplace for meat alternatives is quite saturated so we are not surprised to see growth in alternatives for poultry and seafood. Mycoprotein products are expanding. Overall, we predict that innovation in animal protein substitutes will focus on better replication of the physical, sensory and nutrition characteristics of their corresponding animal proteins.

We are monitoring a similar increase in the penetration of plant and non-animal proteins in dairy alternatives such as dairy alternative drinks, spoonable non-dairy yogurt, non-dairy cheese and non-dairy ice cream.

Precision Fermentation Grows

Precision fermentation modifies microbes to generate a variety of different products, including proteins. In a simplified summary, the appropriate nucleotides for protein production are inserted into the selected microorganism using recombinant DNA technology. The genetically modified microorganisms multiply and produce the desired protein through fermentation when bathed in a specially designed feedstock. The protein then is harvested and filtered.

Industrywide, whey protein production is well-established, casein production is gaining traction, vegan egg protein has emerged, and other protein products of precision fermentation that replicate animal proteins are expected in the near future. We monitor product launches with proteins produced by precision fermentation. Dairy whey increasingly is used in cow’s milk alternatives, ice cream, soft cheeses, sports nutrition protein powders, and beverages. We likewise believe that casein production can revolutionize cheesemaking.

Industry experts predict that precision fermentation will not only replicate known animal-based proteins but also will create unique new proteins that stand out for functionality, sensory qualities, nutrition, and sustainability.

The convergence of AI, data science, sustainability, and desire for alternatives to traditional proteins is resulting in the identification and production of precision fermented proteins that are close replicas of their animal protein counterparts. Last April, The Bel Group acquired an equity stake in AI-driven biotech start-up Climax Foods Inc., Berkeley, Calif. Officials said Climax's team of food scientists have already succeeded in creating various prototypes with all the characteristics of specialty cheeses, including blue, brie, feta, and goat varieties. Bel aims to launch these new plant-based products in the U.S. and Europe by the end of 2024 for brands such as Baby Bel and Laughing Cow.

Other strategies aim to leverage AI optimizing procedures and production methods to scale up precision fermentation and narrowing down over 1.5 billion edible protein sequences into ingredients that can be used in commercial production.

Protein Tech: What’s Next?

In addition to monitoring product launches, Innova monitors patent applications for new food and beverage production technologies. Here is a quick overview of the ingredients and products we expect to see in the near future:

• Vegetarian "calamari rings" using 3D printing technology and protein “ink” from microalgae for fish flavor and mung bean protein upcycled from Asian noodle production.

• A 3D-printed vegan salmon fillet made from a mycoprotein ingredient that provides meat-like texture and exceptional nutrition (keep an eye on mycoprotein in 2024).

• Whole-cut alternatives to meat, chicken, fish, and seafood.

• A chicken schnitzel alternative created from the microalgae spirulina.

• Yeast-based, precision-fermented dairy casein.

•A 100% plant protein kimbap, a Korean dish made with plant-based sausage and eggs.

It’s interesting to note that insect proteins have potential to serve as a nutritious and sustainable alternative to traditional animal-based sources. Worldwide, we see growing patent activity around insect proteins—including textured insect proteins, protein concentrates, insect whey proteins, and insect milk. Even so reluctant acceptance among North American consumers could be a barrier. 

Alternative Reality: Consumer Acceptance

Ingredient and product success depend on consumer acceptance of alternatives that are healthier, cheaper, tastier, and/or more environmentally friendly. Globally, consumers surveyed by Innova say plant-based is healthy and natural and at least two-thirds of consumers feel very positive about plant-based products. They are interested in and accepting of protein as an ingredient in their food.

Most North American consumers are skeptical of farming practices that depart from traditional land-based growing or that are perceived to manipulate nature, such as bioengineering, cultured meat, minichromosomal technology or cell-based ingredients. People are more trusting of new technologies that complement established practices, such as regenerative farming. North American consumers lag behind consumers from other regions in their willingness to try “lab-grown” meat or dairy, citing perceived artificiality, high sugar or fat, cost, and taste concerns.

We recently crafted a survey that specifically explores attitudes toward dairy alternatives and meat alternatives.

Consumers want new technologies to deliver improved taste for dairy alternatives. They positively view familiar-sounding mainstream processes such as fermentation and pasteurization and are skeptical about GMO and cell-based milk. Consumers have positive feelings about enzymes, prolamin and mycelial fermentation technologies and negative feelings of skepticism or rejection regarding genetically modified yeast fermentation and cell-based milk.

In meat alternatives, consumers expect new technology to offer improved taste and meat-like texture. As with dairy, North American consumers are most likely to try products that are created using familiar or perceived natural farming and manufacturing methods. They also are most wary of technologies such as 3D-printing, bioengineered, cultured, cell-based, or landless agriculture.

Consumer Insights: Mining Social Media

Innova analysts continually scan social media platforms—including X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, Pinterest, TikTok, and others—to monitor consumer reaction to various products. Social media buzz is growing around meat substitutes, even though sales have been stagnant.

Consumers often mention the cost of plant-based alternatives and the price difference between plant-based proteins and meat. They also discuss the nutritional content of plant-based protein sources, convenience, and suitability for plant-centric diets, compared to animal-based protein. Consumers appear to be interested in exploring sustainable meat alternatives, although they want meat alternatives to be more affordable, palatable, and healthy.

Finally, processors and ingredient suppliers should keep in mind that “plant-based” applies to food technologies that are not derived from animal sources—while it is not a specific manufacturing, marketing, or legal term. It also is not yet regulated in most countries. Food products that are labeled plant-based are not necessarily vegetarian, vegan, free from animal ingredients, or produced with alternative protein products. And finally, novel technologies can be expensive and fail at a higher rate.

Lu Ann Williams is Global Insights Director at Innova Market Insights, provider of market research services including the Innova Database. With more than 25 years’ experience in the food industry, Lu Ann is a trend expert and frequent public speaker at events worldwide. She leads a team of analysts and works with global clients. Contact her at luann.williams@innovami.com.