Explore More Organic & Natural

In advance of Natural Products Expo West, SPINS LLC, Chicago, issued its 2025 Industry Update & Trends Predictions. Its 42-page report includes a “state of the industry” overview, review of key trends (called “preferences with staying power”), and a look at what’s next in functional ingredients. One additional section is titled, “The Art (and Science) of Being Ready” and discusses the “rising imperative for sustainable innovation in the modern kitchen.” A final “Media of the Moment” chapter explores where and how shoppers engage and commit to new brands.

To link SPINS’ report more directly to new product innovation, Prepared Foods sat down with Scott Dicker, SPINS market insights director. He says SPINS’ industry update presents its annual opportunity to “level set” and review natural products industry (NPI) data and trends. He noted that conventional grocery channel performance increased during and shortly after the nation’s COVID pandemic and resulting inflation—but since then NPI channel sales are back on track at even faster growth rates.

According to SPINS, overall NPI sales—including non-food items—were expected to hit nearly $320B in 2024 with dollar and unit sales growth across virtually every department. Dicker notes that natural product sales growth has outpaced conventional product sales across all formats. Looking ahead, SPINS projects NPI growth at 5% per year to reach $384B by 2028.

Going Up! Natural, Organic Product Sales, Innovation

SPINS finds natural products industry rebounding with more sales, on-trend innovation.

 

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Diving more into the report, here are Dicker’s comments and insights about…

… Overall Innovation: SPINS data from 2021 through 2024 show literal new product introductions down every year across each of the specialty, natural and conventional retail channels. Dicker notes that the nation’s COVID pandemic dramatically reduced new product activity and then it was further impacted by inflationary pressures immediately afterward. He suggests most brands—particularly in natural products—are reducing “me-too” line additions and focusing instead on new hero products and platforms that are disruptive.

… Most Active Food & Beverage Categories: The top five categories with the highest ongoing level of new product launches during a 52-week tracking period (ended Oct. 6, 2024) were energy and sports drinks; wellness and snack bars; ready-to-drink teas and coffees; meat, poultry and seafood; and kombucha and other functional beverages. Dicker notes three of the five involve beverage applications and although energy drink innovation declined slightly, other non-energy drinks—promoting other functional benefits—increased. These categories posted many new flavor introductions, premium- and value-based additions and health-focused items.

… Preferences With Staying Power: SPINS identified a range of as many as eight topics it billed as “preferences with staying power.” These include Biological Age and Beyond, Biohacking, Optimization Through Wearables, Nutrient Density, Skincare, Weight Loss and Quality of Life-Holistic Wellness.

Dicker talks about consumers shifting to embrace “health span” and overall quality of life instead of just thinking in terms of “life span.” They’re using wearable technology to provide real-time feedback on personal health data points. They’re also finding easiest way to positively influence health is to consume more nutrients (such as protein, fiber, magnesium), eliminate sugar and reduce sodium. Not surprisingly, SPINS cites examples of new breads and baked goods with 20g of protein, high-fiber cookies, and ready-to-drink coffee without sugar.

In regard to weight loss, Dicker says it’s “hard to overstate” the impact of GLP-1 medications on consumer eating and food purchases. He cites data that one in eight consumers were using some sort of GLP-1 drug at the beginning of 2024—a percentage that will only increase. Meanwhile, retail product spending could certainly drop in perceived impulse, snacking categories and shift slightly to favor products and categories delivering nutrient dense profiles.

… Ingredients to Watch in 2025: Dicker says he’s most asked about emerging functional ingredients. He notes that most—if not all—already have been around and you find them first trending in supplements. These ingredients simply migrate into functional beverages and then more broadly into functional snacks. Examples include magnesium (brain health) colostrum (immunity, digestive health), creatine (brain health, focus) and berberine (cleansing, weight loss).

… Functional Beverage Trends: There’s been something of a shift from energy function to other areas, such as new prebiotic sodas emphasizing digestive health. Another category—with room to grow—involves beverages for mood support. Another growing functional beverage category would be that for cleanse and “detox” products.

… High-Protein Snacking: Protein remains a macro nutrition trend with a health halo. Every store snacking category—including chips, cookies, bars, toaster pastries and cereals—has protein-boosted (20g+) offerings. Not surprisingly, many products incorporate whey-based proteins but plant-based proteins also continue to gain ground.

… Clean & Sustainable Ingredients: SPINS’ presentation cited examples of new natural products touting alternative, healthier grains (like kernza), controlled environment microgreens and products carrying a regenerative agriculture certification. Additionally, Dicker noted California’s recent moves to ban artificial Red 40 as additional “interest” in the subject. He notes that some new on-pack sustainability certification logos may confuse consumers. Even so, concepts of upcycling and regenerative agriculture likely will be more easily understood and accepted.

Learn even more about SPINS’ 2025 Industry Outlook here: https://www.spins.com/resources/report/2025-industry-update-trends-predictions/