“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Perhaps this opening line from Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities also applies to the food and beverage consumer packaged goods market.

For processors and retailers, it’s a tale of two cycles. It’s a time of increased consumer spending and but also economic uncertainty. It’s a period of consumer versatility but also market volatility. It’s a market enjoying lower inflation, stronger employment and spending growth but also a market impacted by tariffs, domestic and global upheaval and increased scrutiny of food purity.

In its 40^th annual “Eating Patterns in America” report last fall, Circana LLC said despite mixed economic signals and concerns about tariffs, Americans demonstrate “remarkable adaptability” in their eating habits. Circana found consumers increasingly seek versatility in their food and beverage choices. That means traditional boundaries between meals and snacks continue to blur as people look for solutions throughout their day.

“There are two words I will use to describe the current state of consumer behavior today: uncertainty and resilience,” said David Portalatin, senior vice president and industry advisor for Food and Foodservice at Circana. “There are several elements like tariffs, immigration policy, and the narrative around the purity and quality of our food supply that seem to make the future uncertain. But despite the uncertainty, there are signs that consumers and the economy are resilient. Midway through 2025 inflation is relatively low, employment is strong, and food and beverage spending is still growing around 3% versus a year ago.”

Circana came back in December with its revised 2026 US food and beverage retail outlook. Analysts expected continued volume tightness amid ongoing demand challenges. The revised forecast also projects price/mix growth between 2% and 4%, while volume sales are anticipated to be flat or slightly negative. Although recent policy changes have provided some tariff relief, rising supply costs in packaged goods continue.

“Consumer confidence remains weak, prompting shoppers, especially in low- and middle-income groups, to pull back on discretionary spending and focus more on price-value optimization,” said Circana. “Premiumization is likely to slow, and value-seeking behaviors are intensifying. Fresh categories are poised for higher demand, driven by healthy living trends and increased attention to product ingredients, as well as the growing influence of weight-loss drugs.”

Adding her own perspective was Circana’s Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor.

“Our revised 2026 outlook reflects a market that is tightening and more challenging, but not without growth vectors. While pricing pressures and cautious consumer sentiment are shaping a more measured growth trajectory, the food and beverage sector continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability. Brands and retailers that prioritize affordability, channel flexibility, and personalized experiences will be best positioned to succeed in 2026’s competitive landscape.”

General Mills Inc. was just one of many companies sharing an inside perspective during the Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) conference in mid-February. Jeff Harmening, chairman and CEO, discussed the company’s Accelerate strategy and discussed key initiatives such as Delivering Remarkable Brand Experiences (with a reference to “consumer value”) and Prioritizing Consumer-centric Innovation.

“General Mills is enhancing its innovation capabilities to deliver bigger ideas that resonate with consumers across its four business segments,” said General Mills. “The company expects to deliver an approximately 25% increase in net sales from new products in fiscal 2026 by focusing its innovation on three key consumer trends: bold flavors, familiar and fun favorites, and better-for-you benefits like protein and fiber.”

Focused innovation. It’s also particularly relevant as the nation’s retailers innovate across the private label landscape.

The Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA) shared 2025 year-end data this January and reported US sales of store brands increased slightly more than $9 billion to a record $282.8 billion in all outlets last year compared to 2024, according to Circana Unify+™ data.

PLMA said store brand dollar sales increased nearly three times the rate of national brands, climbing 3.3%, compared to a gain of only 1.2% for their national brand counterparts for the 52 weeks ending December 28, 2025. Store brand unit volume was up by 434.3 million to 68.7 billion, (also a new record). That represented a 0.6% rise, while national brands declined by -0.6%.

When it came to store brand unit sales gains, the best performing department for 2025 was Pet Care, up 5.4%, followed by Liquor +4.4%; Beverages, +2.3%; Frozen, +0.9%; Refrigerated, + 0.7% and General Food, +0.2%.

"Private label growth reflects a shift in consumer priorities, as retailer-owned brands increasingly compete—and win—on value, quality, health, and sustainability, not just price," said PLMA President Peggy Davies.