Circana expects volume sales to remain flat through the balance of 2026 as strain on wallets persists and consumers grow more efficient in their spending. Price/mix growth should continue at similar rates, marked by steady, positive product mix shift, higher but stabilizing price growth in packaged goods, and rising price growth in fresh foods.

Rising inflation lifts European and Asia-Pacific sales

In Europe, year-to-date F&B sales through April grew 2.7% on 1.9% growth in price/mix. Circana expects high and rising inflation across Europe to boost F&B value growth through the remainder of 2026, reaching 4% or more for the year. Inflation-led high price points are likely to shift preferences toward lower-priced, smaller pack formats, aiding unit growth across all markets while volume remains hampered.

In Australia and New Zealand, Circana anticipates F&B sales growth to remain above 5%, due to price inflation driven by cost-related price increases and consumers spending more on premium products. Grocery volumes are supported by a migration of spend from discretionary retail into essentials, consistent population growth, elevated promotional activity, and private label investment.

US growth returns to pre-pandemic pace in 2027

Following a period of outsized industry growth of nearly 7% CAGR between 2019 and 2024, driven by the pandemic and subsequent high inflation, Circana expects US retail F&B growth to proceed in the 2-3% range in 2027, closer to pre-pandemic averages of 2.5-3.5%. Tight volume trends will continue as consumers enter a newer period of rationalization in the CPG space, optimizing spending decisions amid ongoing financial pressures, evolving lifestyle priorities, and rapidly changing digital shopping behaviors. Lower population growth also accounts for slower growth versus pre-pandemic levels. Moderate price/mix growth will continue to be supported by product mix gains as shelf increases slow outside of uncertain commodity shifts.

The consumer reset

Circana identifies three pivotal drivers shaping the consumer landscape in 2027 and beyond: pressured wallets, balanced living, and increasing algorithmic influence. As households navigate ongoing financial pressures, consumers are becoming more intentional about where they spend, balancing health, wellness, and enjoyment while prioritizing the outcomes they value – a shift further shaped by growing GLP-1 adoption. At the same time, expanding e-commerce engagement and emerging AI-powered shopping tools are making product discovery more informed and efficient. The result is a more selective consumer who cuts excess, right-sizes purchases, and remains willing to invest in preferred products that best align with their goals.

“Consumers are no longer simply trading down or cutting back,” Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor at Circana, said in a statement. “They are becoming more intentional and efficient. Whether through pack-size optimization, private label and brand selection, AI-assisted shopping, or reducing waste, shoppers are finding smarter ways to achieve the outcomes they want while navigating persistent financial pressures.”